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Performance Evaluation of Terminal Airspace System Safety, Delay and Predictability of Muritala Mohammed International Airport, Ikeja Lagos, Nigeria

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Document pages: 13 pages

Abstract: This paper outlines amulti-dimensional user-oriented performance metrics approach in evaluating theoperation of the terminal airspace system to aid in the airport and airspaceplanning and decision making. Safety, delay and predictability metrics contributeto the analytical framework. From the findings, the occurrence of air incidencehas a high severity level at departure, and arrival phases of flight, higherlikelihood at the radar room and much of the incidences were as a result offaulty equipment and inherent absence of modern airspace infrastructure. Also,in Lagos terminal airspace, the number of incidences has no close correlationwith the level of traffic complexity. Total schedule arrival delay ranges from1 - 392 minutes representing an average of 7.8 - 17.9 minutes per aircraft thatarrived Lagos airport at that period. Besides,the total approach contact time ranges from 1 - 57 minutes, translating to 4.6- 7.1 minutes per aircraft. However, variability in arrival time of 1 - 5minutes is common from published airline arrival scheduled time. In the samevein, the variability of 1 - 5 minutes is common from approach contact times ofaircraft. These figures indicate sound arrival predictability signature forLagos airport. Also, departure time variability above 30 minutes isfamiliar from the ATC clearance time for the various routes under study.However, there is about or more 25 variability of more than 15 minutes, and this indicates possibleinconsistency of predicting departure times from the times Air Traffic Control (ATC) clearance was acquired. Above all, the predictability of departuretimes in Lagos airport is weak compared to those of the arrival. Taken by it,this may be a sign of airspace congestion or ATC deficiencies at the Lagos airport.This is an indication of the lack of users’ confidence in Nigeria’s airtransport industry to deliver just-in-time service.

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