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Who voted for a No Deal Brexit A Composition Model of Great Britains 2019 European Parliamentary Elections

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Document pages: 38 pages

Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to use the votes cast at the 2019 Europeanelections held in United Kingdom to re-visit the analysis conducted subsequentto its 2016 European Union referendum vote. This exercise provides a stagingpost on public opinion as the United Kingdom moves to leave the European Unionduring 2020. A composition data analysis in a seemingly unrelated regressionframework is adopted that respects the compositional nature of the voteoutcome; each outcome is a share that adds up to 100 and each outcome isrelated to the alternatives. Contemporary explanatory data for each countingarea is sourced from the themes of socio-demographics, employment, lifesatisfaction and place. The study find that there are still strong and starkdivisions in the United Kingdom, defined by age, qualifications, employment andplace. The use of a compositional analysis approach produces challenges inregards to the interpretation of these models, but marginal plots are seen toaid the interpretation somewhat.

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