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Probabilistic Resilience of DER systems -- A Simulation Assisted Optimization Approach

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Document pages: 5 pages

Abstract: Energy systems resilience is becoming increasingly important as the frequencyof major grid outages increases. In this work, we present a methodology tooptimize a behind-the-meter distributed energy resource system to sustain asite s critical loads during a pre-defined utility outage period. With thefixed system design, we then propose an outage simulation approach to estimatethe resilience potential of the DER system to sustain loads beyond the fixedoutage period - a yearlong resilience performance analysis. We applystatistical analysis to assess the system s resilience performance over abroader parametric problem space on an hourly, monthly, and yearly basis. Wepresent a case study to demonstrate the impact of the pre-defined outage periodon the resilience performance of the system. The case study shows that theprobability of surviving a random outage of a given duration changes from 20percent to 95 percent when the outage is modeled for a weekday instead of aweekend for the case study building.

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