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Short-Term Reliability Evaluation of Generating Systems Using Fixed-Effort Generalized Splitting

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Document pages: 5 pages

Abstract: The short-term reliability evaluation techniques provide a rational approachfor risk-informed decision making during power system operation. The existingreliability assessment techniques involve large computational burden andtherefore are not directly applicable for short-term reliability evaluationduring system operation. To this end, this paper presents acomputationally-efficient approach for short-term reliability evaluation ofwind-integrated generating systems. The proposed approach makes use of thefixed-effort generalized splitting (FEGS) technique, which is a variant ofimportance splitting. To realize the implementation of FEGS, a discrete versionof component-wise Metropolis-Hastings (MH) algorithm for Markov ChainMonte-Carlo (MCMC) is also presented. Besides, the proposed FEGS approach isextended to take the uncertainties of wind generation and load demand intoaccount. The simulation results indicate that, in comparison to crudeMonte-Carlo simulation (CMCS), the proposed approach is able to evaluateshort-term reliability indices with a low computational burden. Moreover,further simulation results indicate the impacts of uncertainties of windgeneration and load demand on short-term reliability indices.

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