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A multi-stage looking-ahead holding strategy to stabilize a high-frequency bus line

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Document pages: 20 pages

Abstract: If a bus line becomes unstable, passengers waiting time will be lengthenedand buses capacities will be mismatched. To stabilize a high-frequency busline, many holding strategies have been proposed. Among these strategies, someneed to take oversimplified assumptions to simplify the formulation of a realbus line; some may choose a myopic holding time because they take into accountonly the local and currently available headway information. To overcome theabove shortcomings, we proposed an adaptive holding strategy which continuouslyreduces the deviations of the instantaneous headways from the Dynamic TargetHeadway -DTH. By using DTH, the new strategy can make use of the global headwayinformation to determine a proper holding time. To fully estimate the influenceof a holding time on the operation of a bus line in a relative long timeperiod, we introduced the multi-stage looking-ahead mechanism into our newstrategy. A detailed bus line simulation system was used to realize the abovemechanism and to describe all kinds of complex components of a bus line. Thenumerical experiment demonstrated the effectiveness of our new strategy. Somemeaningful insights were uncovered as follow: a. The number of stages to belooked ahead should not be too small or too big; b. The bigger the range of theaction set, the better the performance of our strategy; c. To obtain theoptimal performance, the interval between two neighbor holding times should notbe too small or too big; d. the bigger the number of the control points, thebetter the performance of our strategy.

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