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Parameter Estimation of Fire Propagation Models Using Level Set Methods

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Document pages: 21 pages

Abstract: The availability of wildland fire propagation models with parametersestimated in an accurate way starting from measurements of fire fronts iscrucial to predict the evolution of fire and allocate resources forfirefighting. Thus, we propose an approach to estimate the parameters of awildland fire propagation model combining an empirical fire spread rate andlevel set methods to describe the evolution of the fire front over time andspace. After validating the model, the estimation of parameters in the spreadrate is performed by using fire front shapes measured at different timeinstants as well as wind velocity and direction, landscape elevation, andvegetation distribution. Parameter estimation is performed by solving anoptimization problem, where the objective function to be minimized is thesymmetric difference between predicted and measured fronts. Numerical resultsobtained by the application of the proposed method are reported in twosimulated scenarios and in an application case study using real data of the2002 Troy fire in Southern California, thus showing the effectiveness of theproposed approach.

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