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Markov Chain Models of Refugee Migration Data

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Document pages: 21 pages

Abstract: The application of Markov chains to modelling refugee crises is explored,focusing on local migration of individuals at the level of cities and days. Asan explicit example we apply the Markov chains migration model developed hereto UNHCR data on the Burundi refugee crisis. We compare our method to astate-of-the-art `agent-based model of Burundi refugee movements, andhighlight that Markov chain approaches presented here can improve the match todata while simultaneously being more algorithmically efficient.

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