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Robustness of the international oil trade network under targeted attacks to economies

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Document pages: 14 pages

Abstract: In the international oil trade network (iOTN), trade shocks triggered byextreme events may spread over the entire network along the trade links of thecentral economies and even lead to the collapse of the whole system. In thisstudy, we focus on the concept of "too central to fail " and use traditionalcentrality indicators as strategic indicators for simulating attacks oneconomic nodes, and simulates various situations in which the structure andfunction of the global oil trade network are lost when the economies sufferextreme trade shocks. The simulation results show that the global oil tradesystem has become more vulnerable in recent years. The regional aggregation ofoil trade is an essential source of iOTN s vulnerability. Maintaining globaloil trade stability and security requires a focus on economies with greaterinfluence within the network module of the iOTN. International organizationssuch as OPEC and OECD established more trade links around the world, but theirinfluence on the iOTN is declining. We improve the framework of oil securityand trade risk assessment based on the topological index of iOTN, and provide areference for finding methods to maintain network robustness and tradestability.

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