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Competition between shared autonomous vehicles and public transit A case study in Singapore

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Document pages: 36 pages

Abstract: Emerging autonomous vehicles (AV) can either supplement the publictransportation (PT) system or compete with it. This study examines thecompetitive perspective where both AV and PT operators are profit-oriented withdynamic adjustable supply strategies under five regulatory structures regardingwhether the AV operator is allowed to change the fleet size and whether the PToperator is allowed to adjust headway. Four out of the five scenarios areconstrained competition while the other one focuses on unconstrainedcompetition to find the Nash Equilibrium. We evaluate the competition processas well as the system performance from the standpoints of four stakeholders --the AV operator, the PT operator, passengers, and the transport authority. Wealso examine the impact of PT subsidies on the competition results includingboth demand-based and supply-based subsidies. A heuristic algorithm is proposedto update supply strategies for AV and PT based on the operators historicalactions and profits. An agent-based simulation model is implemented in thefirst-mile scenario in Tampines, Singapore. We find that the competition canresult in higher profits and higher system efficiency for both operatorscompared to the status quo. After the supply updates, the PT services arespatially concentrated to shorter routes feeding directly to the subway stationand temporally concentrated to peak hours. On average, the competition reducesthe travel time of passengers but increases their travel costs. Nonetheless,the generalized travel cost is reduced when incorporating the value of time.With respect to the system efficiency, the bus supply adjustment increases theaverage vehicle load and reduces the total vehicle kilometer traveled measuredby the passenger car equivalent (PCE), while the AV supply adjustment does theopposite.

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