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Statistical Analysis of Variables Influencing Type of Birth in Sri Lanka: A Logistic Regression Approach

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Document pages: 10 pages

Abstract: Caesarean is a major surgical procedure undertakenin obstetrics and its rate is increasing in Sri Lanka as well as in the world.In Sri Lanka, health statistics show an increase in caesarean rates from 13.3 in 1998 to 30.6 by 2007. Due to its potential serious risks and the burden onthe health system, many authorities have recommended reducing the caesareanrate for many years. This motivated us to study the most influential variableson the type of birth in Sri Lanka. In this study, based on the AnuradhapuraTeaching Hospital records, entire 805 new born babies’ birth information wasconsidered during the month of May, 2015. The variable “Type of Birth”(Normal Caesarean) was considered as a binary response variable and age,height, weight of mother and sex, weight, length, shoulder length, headcircumference of the baby were treated as explanatory variables. Logisticregression was used to model the data and using stepwise regression; mother’sage, height and weight were identified asthe most influential variables on the type of birth. Further, it was observedthat the odds of having normal birth is 80 higher for woman who belongs to theage group less than or equal to 30 years compared to woman who belongs to theage group greater than 30 years. Moreover, the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodnessof fit test was used to check the adequacy of the fitted model. Results fromthis study revealed that in future, the type of birth may be predicted byconsidering these identified influential variables.

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