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Odds Ratio & Relative Risk Ratio of Buoy Conditions for Storms in the Atlantic Basin

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Document pages: 13 pages

Abstract: Thepurpose of this paper is to bring awareness to the general public that certainconditions that occur at a buoy in the Atlantic Basin, such as wind located atthe buoy, pressure located at a buoy, water temperature located at a buoy,atmospheric pressure located at a buoy, may be useful in helping predict when ahurricane could possibly hit the state of Florida in the future. One of the goalsof this paper is to bring new statistical methods to investigate and analyzedata, which will create better predicable measures in determining when ahurricane will possibly hit the state of Florida. In this paper, the topics of binarylogistic regression and multinomial regression modeling are discussed inreference to their outcomes of both the odds ratio and relative risk ratiorespectively. The coefficients from these models will show which prospectivebuoy conditions are possibly more responsible for indication of a storm beingpresent in the Atlantic Basin. In this paper, the data that was used andcompiled into a larger data set came from two different sources. First, the hurricanedata for the years 1992-2013came from Unisys Weather site (Atlantic Basin Hurricanes data) and the buoydata has been available from the National Buoy Center. In this paper, thevariables of interest are: storm present, buoy wind speed, buoypressure, buoy atmospheric temperature, buoy water temperature and buoy winddirection. The buoy conditions are the buoy wind, the buoy wind direction, thebuoy pressure, buoy atmospheric temperature and the buoy water temperature.

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