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Fuzzy Modelling for Predicting the Risk of Recurrence and Progression of Superficial Bladder Tumors

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Document pages: 13 pages

Abstract: Nowadays, bladder cancer is the fourth most common cancer in adults andthe second most frequent urogenital tumor. Predicting recurrence and progressionof superficial bladder tumors, with available clinical information todecide the therapy to be used is a difficult task. In this work, two mathematicalmodels were developed to help specialists on the decision process. Themathematical tool used to formulate the model was the fuzzy sets theory, dueto its capacity in dealing with uncertainties inherent in medical concepts. Inthe first model, Stage, Grade and Size of the tumor were also considered inputvariables and Risk of Recurrence of a superficial bladder tumor as output variableof the first Fuzzy Rule-Based Systems (FRBS). In the second model, inaddition to the Stage, Grade and Size of the tumor, it was also considered asinput variable of a second FRBS Carcinoma in situ and, the Risk of Progressionof superficial tumors as an output variable. For each model, simulationswere made with data originated from of patients of the Clinics Hospital UNICAMP and A. C. Camargo Hospital of São Paulo, with the aim to verifythe reliability of results generated by the two systems. From a databaseand the possibility found by FRBS, after the possibility-probability transformation,we can generate the real probability of each fuzzy output set.

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