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Stochastic Modeling and Assisted History-Matching Using Multiple Techniques of Multi-Phase Flowback from Multi-Fractured Horizontal Tight Oil Wells

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Document pages: 39 pages

Abstract: In this paper, the methodsdeveloped by [1] are used to analyzeflowback data, which involves modeling flow both before and after thebreakthrough of formation fluids. Despite the versatility of these techniques,achieving an optimal combination of parameters is often difficult with a singledeterministic analysis. Because of the uncertainty in key model parameters,this problem is an ideal candidate for uncertainty quantification and advancedassisted history-matching techniques, including Monte Carlo (MC) simulation andgenetic algorithms (GAs) amongst others. MC simulation, for example, can beused for both the purpose of assisted history-matching and uncertaintyquantification of key fracture parameters. In this work, several techniques aretested including both single-objective (SO) and multi-objective (MO) algorithmsfor history-matching and uncertainty quantification, using a light tight oil(LTO) field case. The results of this analysis suggest that many differentalgorithms can be used to achieve similar optimization results, making theseviable methods for developing an optimal set of key uncertain fracture parameters.An indication of uncertainty can also be achieved, which assists inunderstanding the range of parameters which can be used to successfully matchthe flowback data.

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