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Empirical Analysis of Commercial Housing Sales Based on EARCH(1,1) Model

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Document pages: 9 pages

Abstract: Since the 1980s, China’s commercial housing market has shown an unprecedentedrapid development, and the commercial houses still has a high price. This paperstudies the sales rate of commercial housing sales to find an appropriatemodel, and it analyzes the volatility of the commercial housing market todescribe the sustainable development of the commercial housing market. Byselecting month data of China’s commercial housing sales from January 2006 toOctober 2018, this paper uses EViews7.2 and the ARMA Model as the tool in orderto establish EARCH(1,1) through the method of quantitative analysis. It isfound that the yield of commercial housing sales has obvious cluster, asymmetryand leverage effect, and the impact of adverse news on the commercial housing marketis more significant than the impact of favorable news.

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