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A Model for the Transmission of Covid-19 in a Mass Gathering

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Document pages: 19 pages

Abstract: Recently the pandemic disease Covid-19 has spread rapidly around the world, the disease has some similar characteristics with a previous endemic disease, the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (MERS-CoV), which has received recently the attention of many researchers. Here, a two patch SEIR model is introduced in order to explain the importance of the impact of the mass gathering of susceptible individuals when the infected individuals and the exposed individuals are taking separately its role in the dynamics of those diseases that involve the two groups. One or more endemic equilibrium points could appear when the reproduction number exceeds the unity, and the model undergoes a forward bifurcation. A re-formulation of the model as an optimal control problem will permit to evaluate the impact of adequate control strategies for the disease.

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