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Empirical Study on the Sustainable Development of Domestic Tourism

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Document pages: 8 pages

Abstract: Taking the number of domestic tourists as theresearch object, an appropriate model is established to analyze the sustainabledevelopment of China’s tourism industry. The number of domestic tourists inChina from 1985 to 2015 was taken as a sample, and the ARIMA model wasestablished using Eviews 6.0.Finally, the ARIMA(0, 2, 1) model is established.After testing, the model fits well (MAPE = 7.363) and the prediction accuracyis extremely high (99.56 ). The ARIMA model’s short-term prediction of thenumber of tourists is reasonable.

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