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Modeling Transmission Dynamics of COVID-19 in Nepal

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Document pages: 7 pages

Abstract: A novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) is an infectious viral disease caused by SARS-CoV-2. The disease was first reported in Wuhan, China, in December 2019, and it has been epidemic in more than 110 countries. The first case of COVID-19 was found in Nepal on 23 January, 2020. Now the number of confirmed cases is increasing day by day. Thus, the disease has become a major public health concern in Nepal. The propose of this study is to describe the development of outbreak of the disease and to predict the outbreak in Nepal. In the present work, the transmission dynamics of the disease in Nepal is analyzed mathematically with the help of SIR compartmental model. Reported data from June 1st to June 17th 2020 of Nepal are used to identify the model parameters. The basic reproduction number of COVID-19 outbreak in Nepal is estimated. Predictions of the peak epidemic time and the final size of the epidemic are made using the model. Our work predicts that, after 125 days from June 1 the infection will reach the peak. In this work, a good correlation between the reported data and the estimation given by our model is observed.

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