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Prediction of confirmed malaria cases in northwestern provinces of Zambia: time series analysis using routine data from 2014 to 2020

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Document pages: 8 pages

Abstract: Background malaria remains a major public health problem, especially in resource poor environments. Our goal is to predict the monthly confirmed malaria cases in the northwestern provinces of Zambia in 2021. method. During the past seven years (January 2014 to December 2020), the total number of confirmed malaria cases per month recorded by health institutions was taken from the regional health information system version 2 (dhis. 2) database. Box – Jenkins autoregressive comprehensive moving average (ARIMA) is used to predict monthly confirmed malaria cases in 2021. Stata software version 16 is used to analyze time series data. Results between 2014 and 2020, there were 3795541 confirmed malaria cases in northwest province, with a monthly average of 45185 cases. ARIMA(2,1,2)(, 1, 1)12 was the best fit and the most parsimonious model. The forecasted mean monthly confirmed malaria cases were 60,284 (95 CI 30,969–121,944), and the total forecasted confirmed malaria cases were 723,413 (95 CI 371,626–1,463,322) for the year 2021. Conclusion. The forecasted confirmed malaria cases suggest that there will be an increase in the number of confirmed malaria cases for the year 2021 in the northwestern province. Therefore, there is a need for concerted efforts to prevent and eliminate the disease if the goal to eliminate malaria in Zambia by 2030 is to be realized.

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