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Assessing the impact of fuel lighting: Kerosene use and disaster cases in Nigeria

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  • Save Public Health Research 2018, 8(1): 6-23 DOI: 10.5923/j.phr.20180801.02 Assessing the Effects of Fuel Based Lighting: The Case of Kerosene Use and Disasters in Nigeria E. C. Merem1,*, Y. Twumasi2, J. Wesley1, P. Isokpehi1, S. Fageir1, M. Crisler1, C. Romorno1, A. Hines3, G. S. Ochai4, S. Leggett4, E. Nwagboso5 1Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS, USA 2Department of Urban Forestry and Natural Resources, Southern University, Baton Rouge, LA, USA 3Department of Public Policy and Administration, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS, USA 4Department of Health Policy and Administration, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS, USA 5Department of Political Science, Jackson State University, Jackson, MS, USA Abstract Fuel based lighting made up of kerosene continues to find essential use in West Africa. In Nigeria where tens of millions regularly use kerosene, adverse environmental health effects remain widespread much of the time given the mixed results. These include rising mortality and morbidity often associated with fire hazards from kerosene explosions, destruction of properties, burns, compromised vision, indoor air pollution, asthma and the disproportionate exposure of infants and women to the risks of recurrent kerosene hazards. With hospital emergency cases involving complications from kerosene hazards on the rise, adulterated products in the face of loose regulations and mass poverty has surged over the years. In all these, very little research exists to assess the risks from fuel lighting incidents and their impacts from a mix scale perspective using GIS. Accordingly, this paper analyzes the growing risks from kerosene disasters in Nigeria. Emphasis is on the issues, the trends, factors and impacts using mix scale techniques of GIS and descriptive statistics to map and track the trends spatially. Preliminary results using descriptive statistics reveal kerosene hazards in the form of fatalities through household explosions as well as health and environmental risks. Just as impact analysis identified pollution threats, the GIS mapping pinpointed the spatial dispersion of the risks and elements associated with kerosene hazards. With all these attributed to several elements from ineffective policy to economic conditions, the paper offered several remedies consisting of the need for education and enlightenment campaign, coupled with improved emergency response to fire hazards and the strengthening of policy. In highlighting the extent of kerosene hazards in the country, there is opportunity for resource managers and decision-making to build from it and design proactive measures to mitigate future disasters for the safety of citizens. Keywords Kerosene, Disasters, Assessment, GIS, Nigeria, Risks, Emergency, Fatalities, Wounds, Fire 1. Introduction According to the literature, the production of petrol pass through many stages of fractioning procedure, starting from primary crude to numerous derivatives, part of which is kerosene, an extremely hazardous product [1-3]. Nigeria, an OPEC member, ranks high among the world’s major producers of petroleum with a teeming population of almost 200 million out of which 120 million of them rely on kerosene fuel to substitute for defective electric power source for hurricane lantern lighting and stoves for cooking [1, 2]. As a result, government statistics in the country shows the consumption of around 9-11 million liters of kerosene on a daily basis with much of that destined to the rural populace at the margins and the middle class [4]. * Corresponding author: (E. C. Merem) Published online at Copyright © 2018 Scientific & Academic Publishing. All Rights Reserved Aside from the volatile nature of its operation, fuel based lighting made up of kerosene continues to find essential use in the last several years in Nigeria. With millions of Nigerians known to use kerosene for domestic lighting up of their homes and cooking, adverse environmental health effects from the usage remain widespread across the country [5]. Considering that such level of consumption of paraffin products brings mixed results most of the time with mounting hazards. Cases of burns from fire accidents occur regularly in a country where fuel based lighting has deep appeal among users for domestic purposes [6]. With the news of exploding kerosene lamps and stoves and pipelines chiefly common in Nigeria [7], subsidies have kept petrol costs including kerosene much lower than in the country than other Sub Saharan African (SSA) nations in the midst of the disasters over the years. Essentially, fuel subsidy not only accounts for 30% of government expenditure in Nigeria, it gulps about 2.2-4% of the GDP. Notwithstanding the mixed outcomes, in 2012 the country spent $8-10 billion dollars on fuel subsidy which surpassed the $2 billion Public Health Research 2018, 8(1): 6-23 7 earmarked for education [8-16]. For such policy ambiguities, public concerns over the high propensity to tragic endings in kerosene use in the country has now grown far bigger than ever [17, 18]. With many Nigerians known to regularly use kerosene for domestic lighting, industrial use of kerosene products [19], and the daily distribution to the different geopolitical zones has risen over time with bulk of that said to be in the south-south and southwest where usage stood at 10.17-6.7 million liters in 2015 [20]. In the process, negative environmental health effects from the different uses remain widespread [6, 21]. Because the literature on kerosene disasters over the years in the country point to deep recurrence across cities, states and regions, the dominant themes cover burns, fatality, mortality, childhood accidental poisoning, adulterated kerosene, explosions involving kerosene lanterns and stoves, vulnerability of women, spills and others [22-24, 1, 5, 25-28]. The major cases that stand out stems from the 2001explosion that burned 125 victims who sought treatment at the Lagos State University Teaching Hospital coupled with the other 2,500 deemed wounded and the hundreds of deaths in Edo in 2012 [1, 15]. While the havocs are reminiscent of petrol fire bomb explosions, the impacts often leave in their wake extensive wounds to the face, chest, and the abdomen of victims [6, 1, 29]. The issues are compounded by the repeated cases of adulteration of kerosene products by some unscrupulous elements due to loose regulatory standards, poor risk prevention measures and unpreparedness of the nation’s emergency management agencies in dealing with disaster outbreaks [30]. Considering that the problems do not operate in a vacuum and the fact that kerosene products are easy to be obtain, suggestions have been made about the removal of subsidy. With the problems attributed to socio-economic elements of policy and poverty and illegal refining of fuel products, very little exists in the literature to analyze fuel lighting incidents and their impacts on the environment in Nigeria from a mix scale perspective using GIS. Aside from few research efforts involving the applications of GIS into related studies, there exists a body research by Merem over the years that focused on the use of GIS as a decision support tool in environmental analysis that are germane to the current concerns about kerosene hazards in Nigeria. Seeing the focus on the impacts of ecological liabilities of oil and gas activities, fossil fuel emission monitoring, renewable energy trends in Nigeria and other areas [31-36]. These studies not only reaffirmed the proficiency of GIS to track the scale of natural resource use and the dispersion of the impacts, but there remains limited work on geo based analysis outlining the spatial dimensions of kerosene mishap in Nigeria. For that, this research will fill that void in the literature. The benefits of the study stems from the capability in showcasing the extent and form of kerosene hazards in the county so that managers can draw from it and device proactive measures to mitigate future disasters for the safety of the citizens. Accordingly, this paper analyzes the growing incidents of kerosene use disasters in Nigeria. Emphasis is on the issues, the factors, impacts, and environmental analysis of the trends. In terms of methods, the paper uses mix scale techniques of GIS and descriptive statistics to map and track the trends spatially. The paper has five objectives. The first aim focuses on the use of geospatial technology to assess ecological impacts of kerosene use, while the second objective is to design a support device for decision-making. The third aim emphasizes the development of novel technique for identifying indices for kerosene safety. The fourth objective is to create a framework for efficient natural resource management using mix scale tools of descriptive statistics connected to GIS. The fifth objective seeks to analyze kerosene use, the associated disasters and factors. The paper is divided into five parts. The first section presents the introduction, while the second part describes materials and methods. Part three highlights the results with GIS mapping, factors and efforts. While the fourth section contains the discussion, part five provides the conclusion and findings of the research. 2. Methods and Materials The study area Nigeria (Fig 1) stretches through an area measured at 923,769 Km2 across 36 states from north to south. With a population of 187 million in 2016 [33], the nation is a major exporter of petroleum with much of the oil and gas produced in the Niger Delta region as highlighted in orange color in the map. As at 2015, it was among the top oil producers globally despite the 53% decline in earnings (Fig 1.2). In the past years (during the 2010 fiscal year), crude oil exports from the country went to different nations in the continents of Europe, Asia, Africa, Australia and America. From the yearly global transactions, the United States alone accounted for 43 percent of Nigeria’s crude oil exports followed by India with 14 percent while Brazil and Spain imported 8 to 5 percent [18]. Accordingly, Nigerians utilize about 9-11 million liters of kerosene fuel daily at a huge fiscal burden on the state. With the limiting capacity of oil and gas infrastructure and the dwindling output in the refineries, the nation devotes more than $5billion annually for the imports and subsidy of paraffin. Considering also that kerosene is essentially aviation fuel that works by soaking a rag in it to ensure luminosity and commonly used in cities, the residue from its use that is often darkish from black soot and unburned fuel, constitutes a major health danger during domestic use [18]. In the process, news of exploding kerosene lamps and stoves are chiefly common in Nigeria, where the infusion of subsidies has kept petrol costs much lesser than in many nations of the Sub Saharan African region. The most dreadful report of contamination confirmed nationwide, reflects a case in which 14% of the victims perished in the Edo state area of Nigeria in the south-south region [15], alongside the deaths of 8 of 10 family members in a home from kerosene explosions in Edo. From the steadiness of 8 E. C. Merem et al.: Assessing the Effects of Fuel Based Lighting: The Case of Kerosene Use and Disasters in Nigeria these incidents, long-term studies found that in most hospital admissions, 96% of burn emergencies were due to paraffin device blasts [6]. Based on the frequency of occurrences, three multi-year reviews at Nigerian hospitals also attributed around 30% of all burn cases to kerosene fuel explosions involving stoves plus lanterns. In another study, injuries to females outnumber those to males by 3:1. Furthermore, gasoline contamination of kerosene has also been implicated in accidental fires associated with the use of kerosene illumination lamps and cook stoves [21]. poisoning involving children across the country shows that the occurrences did extend to the other regions and states as well from the south east through the south-south and the south west. Whereas the southeast’ (at Enugu and Nnewi) share of kerosene mishaps, involving children stood at sizable proportions from 2003-2012. By 2002-2011, Benin City in the south-south area of Edo state reported higher cases of kerosene poisoning as well. Notwithstanding the fact that western cities of Lagos, Ilesha, Ile Ife and Ado Ekiti were epicenters of accidental childhood kerosene poisoning over the years, the victims were mostly from the lower socio-economic stratification in society [37-40, 18]. From the emerging trends, spatial patterns, and the frequency of the hazards in the study area, opportunities are abound in the current study to undertake a risk assessment using a mix scale model targeting the affected states in Nigeria. Figure 1. The Study Area of Nigeria Figure 1.2. The Top Major Oil Exporters In 2015 Other great concerns in the country stem from instances of child poisoning from kerosene use across the regions over the years. In the far north, such mishaps were recurrent in the city of Kano at elevated levels during the mid1990s and late 2000s. A further look at accidental kerosene 2.1. Methods Used The paper uses a mix scale approach involving descriptive statistics and primary data connected to GIS to analyse kerosene hazards in the West African nation of Nigeria. The initial spatial information for the research was obtained from the United States Geological Surveys (USGS), the Oak Ridge National Energy Laboratory, the US Department of Energy (DOE), the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), and the International Energy Agency (IEA). With time, more data emerged from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), the OPEC annual statistics, and Euro stat, the German Agency for International Cooperation (GIZ), United Nations Statistical Division, the World Bank, the United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) and The Nigeria National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC). While other agencies like The United States Agency for International Development (USAID) and the United Nations Economic Commission for Africa (UNECA) were also instrumental in the steps leading to data procurement. The bulk of the kerosene data for Nigeria emanated from the NNPC, Fact Fish GMbH, the UN, and the World Bank group. Aside from the total kerosene consumption information furnished through the Energy Information Administration (EIA), the NNPC and Fact Fish GMbH, considerable portions of the kerosene disaster and hospital admission numbers, subsidy information and fuel truck accidents data for the various years came from the secondary data sources, the ECOWAS and the Nigerian National Road Safety Corps. For the purposes of analysis, the research used regional and federal geographic identifier codes of Nigeria to geo-code the information contained in the data sets. This information was processed and analysed with basic descriptive statistics, and GIS with particular attention to the temporal-spatial trends at the national and regional level. The relevant procedures consist of two stages outlined below. Public Health Research 2018, 8(1): 6-23 9 2.2. Stage 1: Identification of Variables, Data Gathering and Study Design The first step involves the identification of variables needed to measure fuel based lighting impacts involving the growing pace of kerosene disaster trends among the various states in Nigeria across the six geopolitical zones. The variables consist of kerosene burns, percentage of victims, gender and population of victims, kerosene poisoning, poisoning occurrence rates, mortality, number of cases, total paediatric admission from kerosene poisoning and the $ amount of kerosene expenditure. The other variables comprises of kerosene subsidies, kerosene spills, fuel tanker accidents, fatalities from fuel tanker accidents, frequency of accidental poisoning, number discharged, percentage of kerosene poisoning, and the volume of monthly kerosene consumption. Additional variables cover the volume of kerosene import, percentage of kerosene import, kerosene, consumption volume by other consumers, and the percentage, kerosene consumption by households and other consumers and the percentage, kerosene consumption by households and the percentage, adulterated kerosene burns, flame burn disasters from appliance explosion, the residence of victims, and the percentage. Additionally, access to databases that are available within the Federal and state archives in Nigeria, the ECOWAS and other international agencies and secondary sources quickened the search process. The process continued with the design of data matrices for socio-economic, energy and environmental variables covering the periods from 1995, 2003, 2010, 2011, 2102, 2013, 2014 and 2015. The design of spatial data for the GIS analysis required the delineation of state, national and regional boundary lines. With boundary lines unchanged, a common geographic identifier code was assigned to each of the units to ensure analytical coherency. 2.3. Stage 2: Step 2: Data Analysis and GIS Mapping In the second stage, descriptive statistics and spatial analysis were employed to transform the original socio-economic and energy data into relative measures (percentages/ratios). This process generated the parameters for measuring the disasters, kerosene poisoning, percentage of victims, consumption patterns and volumes and rates, poisoning occurrence rates, mortality, usage levels and the trends associated with the $ amount of kerosene expenditure. This was facilitated by measurements and comparisons of the trends over time. While this approach helps track the levels of use or consumption, the tables highlight volumes of kerosene import, percentage of kerosene import, kerosene spills, fuel tanker accidents and fatalities from fuel accidents. The remaining steps involve spatial analysis and output (maps-tables-text) covering the study period, using Arc GIS 10.4 and SPSS 20.0 The spatial units of analysis consist of states, regions, cities and the boundary and locations where usage of fuel types like kerosene and the associated impacts are active. The geographic data for the West Africa state of Nigeria covered its boundaries nationwide and states, also includes ecological data of land cover files, and paper and digital maps from 2003-2013. The outputs of the data were mapped and compared, to see the dispersions of the trends in kerosene use and the factors causing the disasters in the study area over the years. 3. The Results This section of the paper presents the results of the data and environmental analysis of kerosene use and disasters in the study area. There is an initial focus on the temporal profile of kerosene use and distribution, and the percentage levels, the regional assessment of hazards and the impacts. This is followed by the GIS mappings of the trends over the years. The others include identification of factors linked with the problems most notably subsidy, fuel tanker accidents and ineffective policy as well as the present efforts in the country. 3.1. Kerosene Use and Distribution The kerosene use levels in Nigerian falls under three major categories distinguished by consumption among households, households and other consumers coupled with the imports and regional distribution. In the first category of users, note that of the total of 8,411 thousand metric tons (TMT) used among households in the country all through 2003 to 2013, Nigerians averaged about 724 TMT during that period. With time in the early years, the country’s use of paraffin went from 1,116-1,128 TMT and 944 TMT in 2003-2005. Close to that are kerosene consumption levels in the over 700 metric ton level nationwide in 2006, 2008, and 2011. Over time, paraffin usage dropped from 573-543 TMT and 414, 478-484 TMT all through 2007 to 2013 at levels lower than the first three years. The consumption levels based on the table continued further at 944 TMT. Judging from the initial temporal snapshot, the emerging patterns show that kerosene consumption appears to have fluctuated in the country among households with the highest levels evident in the early years of 2003 through 2005 (Table 1) during the ten-year period that ended in 2013. Among the other categories, at a total of 10,473 TMT between 2003-2013, kerosene use among Nigerian households and other consumers stayed the same (1,116-944 TMT in the first two years) but only to pick up more steam from 2005-2008 at an average of 1,600 TMT followed by a drop of about 858 TMT. In the ensuing years, of 2010 to 2013, the combined usage of kerosene with other consumers at an average value of 2,287 TMT for the year, jumped to all-time highs of 2,095-2,090 TMT and 2,492-2,471 TMT at significant levels (Table 2). Under the third category of usage among Nigerians, the pattern of kerosene use by other consumers from 2005-2013, followed a somewhat similar pattern with higher volume of consumption in the latter years and comparatively lower usage in the early periods. 10 E. C. Merem et al.: Assessing the Effects of Fuel Based Lighting: The Case of Kerosene Use and Disasters in Nigeria Although the use levels in 2005-2006 stood in the mid to high hundreds of TMTs, by 2007 through the other years, the numbers moved to 1,009 TMT in 2007 only to slide in 2008-2009 at 782-279 TMT. During the later fiscal years of 2010-2013, the country saw an unprecedented surge among other consumers measured at 1,544-1,988 TMT (Table 3). In terms of kerosene import from the US, it is ironic that the Nigeria ranks high among the top 10 producing nations of hydrocarbons but still imports paraffin products from other countries like the US [41, 42]. Of great importance is the overall volume of 1,986,507 liters of imported kerosene at an average of 203,787 TMT. From the growing volumes of local demands, the import disparity levels between the various years remains evident. Even though kerosene import volumes for 1995 and 2009 and 2013, stayed minuscule at 1,000-4,000 tons during those years, evidentially, Nigeria brought in more paraffin in 2012 and 2014 at record volumes of 272,200-1,427,000 TMT compared to the other periods (Table 4). Added to that, of the total of 10,601,713,670 million liters in monthly distribution of kerosene across regions nationwide, the south-south petroleum-producing hub of the country consumed 10.17 million liters and the southwest followed up with 6.9 million liters. The north central, southeast, and the northeast on the other hand used up 933,300- 310,330 and 358,000 million liters respectively. This is more than the other of regions (North West and FCT) where monthly consumption levels stood at 80,470-30,710 liters in 2014 (Table 5) [20]. 3.2. The Percentage Levels in Kerosene Consumption Consistent with the percentage distribution of kerosene usage in the country over the years, it is clear that the periods of 2003, 2014, 2005, and 2007 held on to the largest levels at double-digit points of 14.02 to 11.86 and 14.17 to 10.00 percent compared to the other periods. The closest rates in kerosene usage were evident during the fiscal years of 2006, 2011 and 2009 at percentage levels of 9% plus to 7.19%. That was followed by the 5.20% to 6 percentage points plus levels representing the equivalence of household kerosene use rates in Nigeria between 2007-2010 and 2012 through 2013. With time, the reversal of patterns for kerosene use for households and consumers and other consumers emerged with the highest percentage points in double digit concentrated in the latter years from 2003-2013 and 2005-2013. For Kerosene use among individual households and consumers in the country between 2003 through 2013, despite the high single digit rates (of 9.73-9.47 and 8.86 -8.57 for 2003, 2005 2005, 2006 and 2008), the lowest percentage points (5.11,7.73-4,64) for households and consumers paled in comparison to the over 11% -13 percent plus levels in consumption from 2010-2013. Whereas similar trends holds for other kerosene users at 14.74, 12.95, 19.22, 18.98 percent all through 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013 fiscal years. The rates of kerosene import from the US at 13.69 to 71.83 percentage points during 2012 and 2014 seem to re-echo a recurrent trend in the country. This implies that apart from some slight fluctuations among household consumers, kerosene use among other categories of consumers’ remains on the rise in the country (Tables 1-5). Table 1. Kerosene Consumption By Households in Thousand Metric Tons (TMT) Year 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2013 Total Value 1,116 944 1,128 753 414 796 573 543 732 478 482 482 8,411 The Percentage 14.02 11.86 14.17 9.28 5.20 10.00 7.19 6.82 9.19 6.00 6.05 6.05 100 Table 2. Kerosene, Consumption by Households and other Consumers in Thousand Metric Tons (TMT) Year 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Total Value 1,116 944 1,750 1,636 1,428 1,584 858 2,095 2,090 2,492 2,471 18,464 The Percentage 9.73 5.11 9.47 8.86 7.73 8.57 4.64 11.34 11.31 13.49 13.38 100 Table 3. Kerosene, Consumption by other Consumers in Thousand Metric Tons (TMT) Year 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Total Value 622 879 1,009 782 279 1,544 1,357 2,013 1,988 10,473 The Percentage 5.93 8.39 9.63 7.46 2.66 14.74 12.95 19.22 18.98 100 Public Health Research 2018, 8(1): 6-23 11 Table 4. Kerosene Import from the US to Nigeria Year 1995 2008 2009 2012 2013 2014 Total Volume 1,000 4,000 1,000 272,000 1,040 1,427,000 1,986,507 The Percentage 0.05 0.28 0.05 13.69 0.05 71.83 100 Table 5. Monthly Kerosene Consumption by Region 2015 Regions South- South South West North West North Central South –East North East FCT Total Volume of Consumption in Million Litres 10,000,000,170 600,000,690 80,470 933,300 310,330 358,000 30,710 10,601,713,670 Percentage 94.32 5.65 ng 0.008 0.002 0.003 ng NA 3.3. The Regional Assessment of Kerosene Hazards and the Impacts From the high level of consumption over the years, fuel light hazards have intensified throughout the country. With the incidents stretching from the south to northern regions of the country, kerosene explosions, burns, and fatalities involving females and childhood poisoning remain widespread in the states of Lagos, Edo, Rivers, Borno and Enugu in the southern and northern region of the country. With the nature of the ongoing threats from fuel light accidents in the country, Kerosene disasters from adulterated fuel between 1984-2012 grew with many fatalities spread across gender groups especially in the southern part of the country in Lagos and Edo, Rivers and Delta states in the south-south. Of the early phases of the disaster known to have occurred, Lagos had about 53 -30 people killed and injured in 1984, and by 2001 the number of those with injuries rose to 116 along with 18 fatalities. During the same year again, additional casualties from adulterated kerosene use in Lagos stood at 59 injured and 36 deaths. Elsewhere in 2004, Edo state saw thousands of (2,500) cases of injuries followed by hundreds of (368) casualties overall. Additionally, the types of kerosene disasters that ended in hospitals in the cities of Lagos, Ilorin and Maiduguri (in Kwara, and Borno states) not only involved some of the extreme circumstances. The fatalities emanated from deadly cases of burns that resulted from tainted kerosene and the impacts of lantern and stove explosions. Other instances of kerosene hazards stems from the accidental ingestion of paraffin among little children in various areas of Nigeria. The recurrent nature of the problem involves highlights of child kerosene poisoning incidents in the northern part of Nigeria over the years. For that, within the north, the city of Kano saw substantial cases that sent many children to hospital emergency wards all through 1995 to 2008. Additional look at accidental kerosene poisoning involving children in the nation shows occurrences remain far deeper than imagined in the southeast, the south-south and the southwest and the northwest. In the southeast, the cities of Enugu and Nnewi shares’ of kerosene mishap involving child kerosene poisoning hovered at 20%-67.7% from 2003-2012. In other places outside of the east in 2002-2011, Benin City saw 60.6% of additional cases along with Maiduguri at 30% in 2007-2011. Recurrent incidents along these lines involving kerosene burns in the Ilorin area of Kwara state encompass the ones in October of 2001. Given the critical levels from the mishap, in the span of one week, the University Teaching Hospital Ilorin admitted 65 victims out of which 12 of them died with the other 53 placed under intensive care. In the other parts of the country such as Calabar in Cross River state in the south-south region, as at the 2008 fiscal year, the trauma units stayed quite active with the influx of 59 burn patients, with time, 37 of them exhibited trauma symptoms. This involved all patients who checked in that period. While a further breakdown of the documented disasters, showed kerosene and candle related burns characterized 33.9% of all incidents. At another south-south city of Benin in Edo state, where 62 children, sought treatment for skin burns from 2002-2006, records indicate that 52% of those burns out of the accidents occurred through kerosene explosions, which left 50% percent of the body parts scorched [18]. 3.4. The Impacts along Demographic Groups and Gender Lines From the magnitude of the kerosene disasters nationwide, the overall ratio along gender lines point to more female victims than males at hospital emergency wards. In the process, the analyses across gender lines of the victims revealed startling outliers in the ratio that showed more female victims all through 1984 to 2001 among the states. In terms of the actual distribution of ratios pertaining to victims across gender, the exposures to kerosene disasters in Lagos in 2001 reinforced that pattern in a surprising exposé. Even though during the same year, in the south-south region, the ratio of women to men who experienced skin burns from kerosene disasters leveled in Port Harcourt, River state and in Edo state. In the following year, the proportion of causalities jumped significantly in 2012 in both Edo and Delta states in the south-south. In the Middle Belt area of Ilorin in 2001, the group of people classified as 18-45 years among the victims’ stood out as the core bulk of those scotched, their painful ordeal came from the severe burns they sustained in a way not different from similar occurrences in Lagos. The breakdown at Ilorin across gender in the same year showed more females at 40 (61.5%) than the males who were outnumbered by 25 (38.5%) with many of 12 E. C. Merem et al.: Assessing the Effects of Fuel Based Lighting: The Case of Kerosene Use and Disasters in Nigeria the victims drawn from over half a dozen communities in the Ilorin area of Kwara state. In 2008 at Calabar, out of the 19 reported incidents caused by explosions, the gender ratio stood at 3:1 between women and men while the city of Oshogbo in Osun state also recorded a ratio of 1.2-2:1 along gender lines under the age groups of 1-46 years of which blaze constituted the collective cause of wounds. 3.5. GIS Mapping and Spatial Analysis The genesis of spatial dimensions of kerosene disasters in the country over the years begins with the widespread network of pipeline delivery systems necessary in the movement of crude petroleum and kerosene products spread across the various geographic zones in the country. From an overall distribution map covering refineries, pipeline, distribution depots and pump stations in the country. They extend from a vast tapestry of refineries and crude oil pipelines in the lower south represented in green and dark red in the Warri and Port Harcourt areas in Delta and Rivers State in the Niger Delta onto the North Central area of Kaduna, Zaria and the Far north areas. This is followed with diversions into Kano and further down to Jos in the Middle Belt and Gombe and Maiduguri Borno state. Note also the multiple outlets in blue depicting distribution depots and the new products pipelines and products pipeline stretched onto the southeast cities of Enugu and Aba with extensions onto the middle Belt city of Makurdi in the north central area serving new distribution depots at nearby Yola. Further along the southwest and the mid-west axis near to the west of Gulf of Guinea appear more distribution networks and pump stations along Benin and Lagos serving nearby areas of Ibadan and Ore and the Niger Delta region (Figure 2). The geographic distribution of kerosene related fire explosions highlights the hot spots in the maps where fuel disasters wreaked havoc in communities in the country. The most recent instances of these disasters occurred in the periods of 2008 through 2015 along the south western, southeastern and in the south-south zones in the southern region. Being a problem precipitated through collisions involving moving fuel tankers in densely populated areas. The incidence of fuel tanker disasters often associated with the transportation of kerosene products as shown in the map, have devastated many cities and regions since 2008-2015. Considering that, kerosene comes as byproducts of hydrocarbons and the fact that many of the refineries producing it are located in the south-south zone of the country on the lower edge of the map. It is then not surprising that fuel tanker disasters continues to be profoundly concentrated in the south with deadly explosions all through Lagos, Edo, Rivers states and Anambra states in the southern region. The spatial patterns of the trends in 2008-2010 include the incidents on the Lagos area along the Lagos –Ibadan express way and the Third Mainland Bridge. The others reflect a flurry of kerosene mishaps as evidenced with further tanker firestorm in Ovie northeast in Edo state as well as the Benin- Shagamu expressway with notable casualties between the periods of April 5 in 2013 and April 2 of 2014. Observe also, additional incidents involving tanker explosions, which rocked the Okosia area of River State during July 12th of 2012. Note as well the violent flashes of recurring tanker blazes from 2009-2015 along the adjoining southeast business hub of Onitsha in Anambra state at Upper Iweka and the outskirts of the city. The ensuing inferno spilled over to moving and stationary cars and pedestrians with human casualties and property damages spread across the towns of Onitsha and Nnewi. One essential point from the emerging patterns on the map as mentioned earlier, stems from the pace at which the frequency of tanker blaze occur along both heavily populated urban areas and major high ways in the southern region compared to little occurrences in the northern zone of the country (Figure 3). The central part of cases of spills involved the two cases in the north and south-south region of the country along Maikunke and Calabar axis in both Niger and Cross River state. With the damaging effect on the vegetation and soil structure in impacted areas, both areas did stand out with exposures to kerosene spill on their ecosystem from 2005 through 2012. Following that, comes the deadly explosion triggered by kerosene across the three states in the southwest and south- south. By 2008-2011, in the southwest city of Oshogbo, kerosene implosion left in its wake 37 seriously hurt people and 7 deaths with 29.2% of the tragedy attributed to burn flames. In the lower edge of the map depicting south-south zone, of the 62 victims of kerosene mishap in 2002-2006, 52% of that involved young children. In the emerging years, in 2016, about 20 families in Borokiri area of Port Harcourt in River states also experienced kerosene disasters (Figure 4). Additional damages from adulterated kerosene burns and explosions come from the Lagos area where many victims sought treatment in the mainland part of the city at the Lagos University teaching hospital (LUTH) in Idiaraba. In the process, from the early part of October to November of 2001, kerosene burn accidents in the area not only claimed 12 lives, but about 125 patients with burn injuries were admitted into hospital emergency at LUTH. Notwithstanding the collective anguish from such a disaster, the city endured another repeat incident that affected 94 victims in the same year. Further look on the map shows a gradual concentration of kerosene burn incidents spread across several local government areas of the state especially in the mainland area of Lagos state. With the high frequency of burn incidents firm in the central zone among the local governments, the communities of Oshodi-Isolo, Mushin and Surelere axis of the city accounted for significant levels of the mishaps (at 6%, 29 to 34.6%) while those impacted by kerosene burns at Ajeromi-Ifeledun zone in the south of the state stood at 14% (Figure 5). Other notable impacts of kerosene disasters consists of the spread of the skin burn incidents from adulterated products stretching from Ilorin in Kwara state along the middle Belt/ in north central Nigeria and Oshogbo area in Oshun state onto the cities of Benin and Calabar in the south-south zone. With multiple incidents visibly evident on the left side of the map in 2001, in Ilorin Kwara state, note the number of Public Health Research 2018, 8(1): 6-23 13 victims, the casualties and those who underwent treatment in hospitals coupled with the number of cases, the 4 affected local government areas, and the 58 victims therein. The same thing followed in the south west at Oshogbo with 36 burn victims from 2000-2004. Additional occurrences involved cases in Benin and Calabar in the south-south where 59 citizens suffered skin burns (Figure 6). The ratio of people killed and the gender, and those injured shows a common pattern not different from the previous configurations already outlined. Of the areas at the center of these disasters involving deadly cases resulting from kerosene adulteration, four areas in the southwest and the south-south comprising of Lagos, Delta, Rivers state and Edo remain the states with most casualties and affected victims. On the left hand side of the map depicting Lagos, from 1984-2001, see that the area suffered notable mayhem in 1984 involving men and women at a ratio of 1:9 followed by 53-30% rates of injured and dead victims. From then on, the resurgence in casualties from adulterated kerosene occurred in 2001 at two different periods in the same year. Outside of the southwest region in the map, the dreaded mishap returns to the south-south zone where Benin City in Edo State saw hundreds to thousands of injured and dead persons as manifested in 2004, 2011-2012. The disasters continued unabated with minor uptick again along the lower south-south zone of Warri and Port Harcourt with the numbers ranging from 11 deaths and 11 injured during 2012 and 1-5 gender ratios again among those that sustained injuries and the causalities in 2011. Again, the south-south and the southwest seem to have dominated the causality rates more than the north and southeast regions during the periods under analysis (Figure 7). Considering the mounting threats of food poisoning nationwide, during the period 1984 through 2012, several cities located in handful of states experienced kerosene induced food mishap involving young children. Being no respecter of geographic and political boundaries and with the manifestation of these problems clearly evidenced in the upper north, the southeast and south-south portions of the country. The pace of accidental kerosene food poisoning in the country also involves the visible display of the patterns spread across the core north where major occurrences of the incidents rattled Kano at the rates of 74.3-50% all through 1995-2008. The number dropped to 30% further along the northeastern city of Maiduguri from 2007-2011. On the southwest portion of the map comes notable variability on the growing occurrences of paraffin intoxication in the states of Ekiti, Osun and Lagos with Ilesha Town and Metro Lagos having identical incidence rates of 14% -18.8%. In the same region, the cities Ile Ife in Osun and Ado Ekiti posted much higher rates of accidental kerosene ingestion of 37% to 40.9% between 1988-1989 and 2015. Aside from the initial concentration of these problems in the other regions, with time came a gradual shift of the spatial patterns towards a group of major cities in the lower southern region of the country. Of these areas, in the southeastern region, surges in kerosene mishaps showed further presence (at Enugu and Anambra) in 2003-2012. During that period, paraffin accounted for 20% of food poisoning at Enugu, while in Nnewi, Anambra state, paraffin ingestion rates topped 67.7% of all cases associated with food poisoning. Regarding the lower south-south region, Benin City’s accidental poisoning also accounted for all reported cases of kerosene disasters therein at 66%. With these instances of kerosene tragedy deeply visible in the various cities, it is clearly evident that the concentration patterns of kerosene poisoning in the country transcends every region from the upper north to the lower south-south. As manifested so far, these zones also have had their own shares of exposures to childhood kerosene poisoning, as well as admission to the emergency wards of major university teaching hospitals (Figure 8). The spatial distribution of future projects to address kerosene shortage in the country shows they are mostly in the off shore areas. The only exceptions were the two projects involving Dibi for the long-term and the Sona Field project and Grube phase 2 projects situated a bit more closer to inland along Beyelsa and Rivers States in the deep south with Agip and Chevron as the major sponsors. Further deep on the map towards the Gulf of Guinea and the Atlantic coast emerges a spectra of offshore fields spread across the western, northern, eastern, and southern portions of the Gulf of Guinea. Along the upper northern coastal zone of the Gulf note the location of three proposed fields (satellite development phase, Zabazab-Ethan) for Chevron and ENI followed by the EGMA, UGE oil project on the northeast side. Adjacent to the same vicinity further down to the south west comes a dispersal of multiple offshore fields beginning with Erha North phase 2, and the NSIKO project and another trio of ventures along Bonga north and south in the south east of the Gulf of Guinea. Overall, the GIS mapping revealed spatial dispersion of the risks, future projects and elements associated with the hazards attributed to socio-economic factors (Figure 9). Figure 2. Crude Oil Distribution Network 14 E. C. Merem et al.: Assessing the Effects of Fuel Based Lighting: The Case of Kerosene Use and Disasters in Nigeria Figure 3. Fuel Tanker Explosions in 2005-2008 Figure 6. Burns from Adulterated Kerosene 2001, Ilorin Kwara, State Figure 4. Kerosene Spills and Explosion in 2000-2016 Figure 7. Gender Ratios and Victims of Kerosene Adulteration Figure 5. Adulterated Kerosene Burns 2001, In Lagos Figure 8. Accidental Kerosene Poisoning Public Health Research 2018, 8(1): 6-23 15 Figure 9. Map of Future Projects 3.6. Factors Responsible for the Widespread Disasters In the context of factors associated with the frequency of kerosene disasters, it is clear that they do not operate in a vacuum. They partly come from a set of socio-economic and physical elements such as subsidies, fuel tanker accidents and ineffective policy. The complete examination of these elements is presented in the following paragraphs. 3.6.1. Proliferation of Kerosene Subsidies Conceptually, kerosene subsidies refer to government assistance disbursed to ensure prompt delivery to needy population to balance their income and manage the supply in a way that shapes the marketing of these products. This also involves state procurements of kerosene products and the provision of a safety net for domestic users in case of eventual volatility in the market place [43, 44]. Considering the seemingly, harmful side of kerosene subsidies in the market place and the linkages to unnecessary ecological burdens on citizens. The ambiguities embedded in subsidies distort the marketing of paraffin in a way that affects the health of citizens and environmental quality in Nigeria. Subsidy opponents criticize its misuse and impact given the easy access to many poor Nigerians. In the country, excessive kerosene use and distribution patterns prompted by subsidies resulted in unintended environmental harms. Furthermore, among the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) in 2002-2010, Nigeria spent more money estimated at $16.1 billion in subsidized kerosene than the other nations in the region. While this represents an average of $1.7 billion annually during that period respectively, within those years, the country spent over $2-3 billion in 2007-2007 and 2010 to sustain kerosene consumption than the other periods (Figure 10). Making subsidized kerosene fuel available is not only essential for domestic usage, but it results in access to cheap paraffin’s for consumers and sometimes leads to unwanted negative externalities and overuse of the products and abuse of the goodwill behind subsidy. The unregulated distribution of kerosene products through roadside hawkers, small-scale dealers in the country and others in that way helped the proliferation of adulterated products. This is partly responsible for much of the kerosene and stove appliances related accidents among ordinary Nigerians who throng hospital emergency wards as victims. More so, the widespread accidental ingestion of kerosene by children and the resultant fatalities as seen over the years come from poor home storage and the easy access to the product. To that end, in the southeastern part of the country (in Enugu), hospital sources indicate that kerosene accounts for 44 percent of all substances responsible for accidental cases of poisoning. Had it not been for the subsidies involved and the common availability, it could have been very hard to access the products so easily and many deaths would have been prevented [18]. 3.6.2. Fuel Tanker Accidents The widespread cases of kerosene disasters over the years across Nigeria reflect a pattern of frequent mishaps of fuel tanker explosions common at major Nigerian Highways. Between 2005-2015 in the country based on existing information, most of the accidents originated from road mishaps involving vehicular movements on major roads in highly populated urban areas of the country especially in the southern part of Nigeria. Of great importance in the past years are the incidents involving 6 cars that were razed out following a head on collision from fuel tanker explosion in the Lagos area in 2008. In the ensuing periods of 2009-2010, note also additional incidents of the recurrent fatalities encompassing 70-400 citizens in both the eastern city of Onitsha and Ibadan-Ife expressway. Being the largest among the list of causalities, the mishap also triggered the destruction of about 150 vehicles. Further, along the years then came more tanker fuel related vehicular incidents with additional victims. From the table, during the periods of July 12 of 2013 to May 31 in 2015, as indicated in the table, the nation saw more deadly fuel tanker disasters leading to the death of 121 persons alongside 75 injured individuals. The trends continued with multiple injuries (30, 2 and 4) in 2013-2014 and another 60 in the fiscal year 2015 in the cities of Benin, Ovie north and the Upper Iweka area in Onitsha Anambra state [45] (Table 6). 3.6.3. Ineffective Policy The frequency and nature of kerosene disasters in Nigeria indicate that the country lacks clearly defined laws to regulate the local and interstate movements, the storage, and distribution of highly inflammable materials like paraffin [30]. Judging from the problems leading to accidental ingestion of kerosene, the explosions involving fuel tankers, lantern explosions, and deliberate adulterations of kerosene

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