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Epidemic Analysis of COVID-19 in Italy by Dynamical Modelling

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Document pages: 10 pages

Abstract: Epidemic analysis by dynamical modelling is a reliable and insightful way to analyse epidemiological data in order to extract key indicators about the outbreak and to make predictions on its future course. We develop a generalised SEIR model based on Peng et al. 2020 and estimate it on a national and regional level against the data published daily by the Italian Dipartimento della Protezione Civile.We find the inflection point for Italy to have been on the 21st of March, a plausible end date to be on the 14th of May and expect the total number of infected people to be between 155 thousand and 185 thousand people.

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