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Biofuel Mandating and the Green Paradox

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Document pages: 59 pages

Abstract: Well-intended preannounced carbon mitigation policies can lead to adverse impacts such as the green paradox. This paper examines conditions impacting the prevalence of this phenomenon, when suppliers of carbon-free energy, similarly to carbon suppliers, can anticipate the implementation of preannounced carbon regulation. Ignoring the response of carbon-free suppliers to preannounced climate policies overestimates the green paradox. For EU-2020 and US-2022 calibrated biofuel mandating targets, simulations point to a robust 0.4-0.6 percent decline in premandate global crude oil supply, suggesting that concerns over the green paradox may have been overstated. Mandate design to mitigate the green paradox is also discussed.

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