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Assessment of Different WRF Configurations Performance for a Rain Event over Panama

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Document pages: 18 pages

Abstract: A set of 15 combinations of microphysics and cumulus parameterizations for the WRF numerical model were tested in the forecast of a rain event on January 16 2018 over Panama. GPM satellite, upper air soundings and ground weather stations were used to evaluate the performance of each configuration. Different metrics were used to obtain the configurations that produced the best forecasts. The analysis showed a strong fluctuation of the diurnal precipitation cycle from one region to another. From the set of tests carried, BMJ with Morrison performed slightly above the other combinations in representing well the diurnal cycle for some domain areas, followed by Thom-Gr, WSM6-BMJ and WSM6-KF. While the experiments had a better performance forecasting over sea, they were not able to match the highest values of total precipitation. Regarding spatial rain distribution, all BMJ cumulus combinations showed the best skills mainly over the area comprising the Panama Canal while the others tended to overestimate the rain. Finally, most BMJ experiments showed the highest correlation factor and performed quite well representing the vertical profiles of relative humidity, temperature and wind.

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