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Seasonal Influences On The Spread Of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID19), Causality, and Forecastabililty (3-15-2020)

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Document pages: 12 pages

Abstract: A correlation exists between observed spread of COVID 19, (SARS-CoV-2), and climatological temperatures and latitude. Along an observed area of 25-55 degrees North latitude and within a climatological band of 4-12 degrees centigrade, enhanced spread of the disease has been observed between December and February 2019-2020. Additionally, a comparison of the seasonality of other viruses, like seasonal Influenza, shows that the cool season in the northern hemisphere (Boreal Winter) favors spread of the diseases more than the warm season in the northern hemisphere (Boreal Summer). Further, examining locations where spread would be expected for COVID-19 based on a travel and population density model does not account for the observed trends with some high population and high travel areas seeing little if any community spread of the virus if that location falls outside of the climatologically favored zones. Mapping was created using these principles beginning in mid-February and has shown skill in predicting where the virus would be most likely to spread. While correlation exists between temperature profiles and the spread of the disease, a causative element associated with viral kinetics of Covid-19 may be related in parallel. Given research data confirming that the virus did not become quickly deactivated in temperatures ranges outside of the observed preferred environmental thermal profile (4-12 C), it is possible that the atmospheric radiation that is the primary differentiator between seasonal temperature variation is also the primary cause of apparent seasonal variation in COVID-19. Additional laboratory research is required to establish environmental Ultra-Violet (UV) radiation within the UVA and UVB spectrums as effective germicides. Given that UV (and in general all insolation) is modulated heavily by weather like humidity and cloud cover, by utilizing deterministic atmospheric weather modeling and an understood seasonality of COVID-19, it may therefore be possible to create a forecast that has skill and can be used by governing bodies at varying levels as well as health care coordinators to better utilize resources to prepare for, mitigate against, respond to, and recover from a potential viral pandemic. Additionally, it is possible that the viral kinetics studied may be generalized to predict outbreaks of varying viral origins in the future.

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