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Value at Risk (VAR): An Application to Air Traffic Forecast

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Document pages: 4 pages

Abstract: This paper analyzes the patterns of the World Air traffic flow and shows that at equilibrium, it always meets the Geometric Brownian Motion GBM criteria. The corresponding GBM model has been used to run Monte Carlo Simulations of the projected air traffic level at the end of the year 2021. Then the Value at Risk (VaR) measure has been applied to determine, with a confidence level of 99 , the lowest air traffic level.

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