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Forecast for the Cameroon’s Residential Electricity Demand Based on the Multilinear Regression Model

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Document pages: 11 pages

Abstract: Theelectricity needs of populations in Cameroon are increasing and are still veryinadequate. Companies, public buildings and households are facing frequentblackout which constrain development and social well-being. Therefore, thepresent work tried to forecast the electricity demand in the residential sectorin Cameroon, in order to contribute significantly tothe mastery of electricity consumption and highlight decision-makers in thissector. Six macroeconomics parameters covering the period 1994-2014 are usedfor these issues. Stationarity tests within gross domestic product, grossdomestic product per capita, electricity consumption, population and numbers ofsubscribers and households respectively; reveal that all the series are I(1). Thus, the VAR (VectorAutoregressive) model has been retained to forecast the electricity demanduntil 2020. The cusum test and the cusum of squared test attest the stabilityof that model with a margin of error of 0.02 . Previsions are then morereliable and show that the electric request will skip from 1721 GWh in 2014 tomore than 2481 GWh in 2020 approximatively, following a growing yearly rate of 5.36 . In order to reach its emergence, Cameroonought to speed up its production in the domain of hydroelectric andthermal grid in order to meet the requirements in electric power in short andlong term.

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