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Propulsion Shaft and Gearbox Failure in Marine Vessels: A Duration Model Analysis

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Document pages: 15 pages

Abstract: Theneed to mitigate downtime in marinevessels arising from propulsion systemfailures has led ship operating companies to devote enormous resources for research based solutions. This paper appliedduration models to determine failure probabilities of shaft and gearbox systemsin service boats. Using dockyard’s event history data on boat repairs and maintenance, we applied Kaplan Meierhazard and survival curves to analyse probability of failure of shaft and gearbox systems in supply, crew and tug boats. We found thataverage time to shaft and gearbox failure was 8.33, 5.23 and 5.21 months fortug, supply and crew boats respectively. The hazard plots however, showed thatsupply boats had higher probability of failure than crew boats and then tugboats in that order. Further analysis using Cox regression model showed that the boats’ shaft and gearbox system failureswere significantly affected by level of lubrication oil, stress corrosioncracking and impacts on the propulsionsystem’s components. The paper proposes that design of maintenance schedules forservice boats should take the following into consideration: 1) estimated survival limits or failure times ofpropulsion system’s shaft and gearboxes, 2) significant risk factors that affect failuremode of the propulsion system components.

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